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Design and validation of a predictive model for 1-year hospital admission in HIV patients on antiretroviral treatment

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2016-07-01

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Montes-Escalante, Ines
Monje-Agudo, Patricia
Calvo-Cidoncha, Elena
Almeida-Gonzalez, Carmen V.
Morillo-Verdugo, Ramon

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Bmj publishing group
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Objectives To develop and validate a model for predicting the risk of hospital admission within 1 year in the HIV population under antiretroviral treatment.Methods We conducted a retrospective observational study. Patients receiving antiretroviral treatment for at least 1 year who were followed by the pharmacy service in a Spanish-speaking hospital between January 2008 and December 2012 were included. Demographics, and clinical and pharmacotherapy variables, were included in the model design. To find prognostic factors for hospital admission a multivariate logistic regression model was created after performing a univariate analysis. Model validity was determined by the shrinkage method and the model discrimination by Harrell's C-index.Results 442 patients were included in the study. The variables 'CD4 count 50 copies/mL)', 'number of previous admissions', and 'number of drugs different from antiretroviral treatment' were the independent predictors of risk of hospital admission. Probabilities predicted by the model showed an R-2=0.98 for the development sample and an R-2=0.86 for the validation sample. The Harrell's C index for the development and validation data were 0.82 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.87) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.88), respectively.Conclusions The model developed in this study may be useful in daily practice for identifying HIV patients at high risk of 1-year hospital admission.

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Drug-interactions, Risk, Comorbidity, Readmission, Polypharmacy

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