Publication: Predicting mortality for Covid-19 in the US using the delayed elasticity method
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Date
2020-11-30
Authors
Hierro, Luis Ángel
Garzón, Antonio J.
Atienza-Montero, Pedro
Márquez, José Luis
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Publisher
Springer Nature
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Abstract
The evolution of the pandemic caused by COVID-19, its high reproductive number and the associated clinical needs, is overwhelming national health systems. We propose a method for predicting the number of deaths, and which will enable the health authorities of the countries involved to plan the resources needed to face the pandemic as many days in advance as possible. We employ OLS to perform the econometric estimation. Using RMSE, MSE, MAPE, and SMAPE forecast performance measures, we select the best lagged predictor of both dependent variables. Our objective is to estimate a leading indicator of clinical needs. Having a forecast model available several days in advance can enable governments to more effectively face the gap between needs and resources triggered by the outbreak and thus reduce the deaths caused by COVID-19.
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MeSH Terms
Medical Subject Headings::Diseases::Virus Diseases::RNA Virus Infections::Nidovirales Infections::Coronaviridae Infections::Coronavirus Infections
Medical Subject Headings::Anthropology, Education, Sociology and Social Phenomena::Social Sciences::Forecasting
Medical Subject Headings::Health Care::Health Care Economics and Organizations::Health Planning
Medical Subject Headings::Organisms::Eukaryota::Animals::Chordata::Vertebrates::Mammals::Primates::Haplorhini::Catarrhini::Hominidae::Humans
Medical Subject Headings::Health Care::Health Care Quality, Access, and Evaluation::Quality of Health Care::Health Care Evaluation Mechanisms::Statistics as Topic::Models, Statistical
Medical Subject Headings::Health Care::Environment and Public Health::Public Health
Medical Subject Headings::Anthropology, Education, Sociology and Social Phenomena::Social Sciences::Forecasting
Medical Subject Headings::Health Care::Health Care Economics and Organizations::Health Planning
Medical Subject Headings::Organisms::Eukaryota::Animals::Chordata::Vertebrates::Mammals::Primates::Haplorhini::Catarrhini::Hominidae::Humans
Medical Subject Headings::Health Care::Health Care Quality, Access, and Evaluation::Quality of Health Care::Health Care Evaluation Mechanisms::Statistics as Topic::Models, Statistical
Medical Subject Headings::Health Care::Environment and Public Health::Public Health
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Keywords
COVID-19, Forecasting, Health planning, Models, statistical, Humans, Public health, Predicción, Planificación en salud, Modelos estadísticos, Humanos, Salud pública, Mortalidad
Citation
Hierro LA, Garzón AJ, Atienza-Montero P, Márquez JL. Predicting mortality for Covid-19 in the US using the delayed elasticity method. Sci Rep. 2020 Nov 30;10(1):20811.