Publication:
Predictive Model of the Risk of In-Hospital Mortality in Colorectal Cancer Surgery, Based on the Minimum Basic Data Set.

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2020-06-10

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Garcia-Torrecillas, Juan Manuel
Olvera-Porcel, Maria Carmen
Ferrer-Marquez, Manuel
Rosa-Garrido, Carmen
Rodriguez-Barranco, Miguel
Lea-Pereira, Maria Carmen
Rubio-Gil, Francisco
Sanchez-Perez, Maria-Jose

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MDPI AG
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Various models have been proposed to predict mortality rates for hospital patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery. However, none have been developed in Spain using clinical administrative databases and none are based exclusively on the variables available upon admission. Our study aim is to detect factors associated with in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer and, on this basis, to generate a predictive mortality score. A population cohort for analysis was obtained as all hospital admissions for colorectal cancer during the period 2008-2014, according to the Spanish Minimum Basic Data Set. The main measure was actual and expected mortality after the application of the considered mathematical model. A logistic regression model and a mortality score were created, and internal validation was performed. 115,841 hospitalization episodes were studied. Of these, 80% were included in the training set. The variables associated with in-hospital mortality were age (OR: 1.06, 95%CI: 1.05-1.06), urgent admission (OR: 4.68, 95% CI: 4.36-5.02), pulmonary disease (OR: 1.43, 95%CI: 1.28-1.60), stroke (OR: 1.87, 95%CI: 1.53-2.29) and renal insufficiency (OR: 7.26, 95%CI: 6.65-7.94). The level of discrimination (area under the curve) was 0.83. This mortality model is the first to be based on administrative clinical databases and hospitalization episodes. The model achieves a moderate-high level of discrimination.

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MeSH Terms

Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Colorectal Neoplasms
Female
Hospital Mortality
Hospitalization
Humans
Logistic Models
Male
Middle Aged
Retrospective Studies
Risk Assessment
Risk Factors
Spain

DeCS Terms

Factores de riesgo
Hospitalización
Medición de riesgo
Modelos logísticos
Mortalidad hospitalaria
Neoplasias colorrectales
Persona de mediana edad
Humanos
Estudios retrospectivos
Anciano
España

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Keywords

colorectal cancer, epidemiology, mortality, predictive model, public health

Citation

García-Torrecillas JM, Olvera-Porcel MC, Ferrer-Márquez M, Rosa-Garrido C, Rodríguez-Barranco M, Lea-Pereira MC, et al. Predictive Model of the Risk of In-Hospital Mortality in Colorectal Cancer Surgery, Based on the Minimum Basic Data Set. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Jun 12;17(12):4216.