RT Journal Article
T1 Predictive Model of the Risk of In-Hospital Mortality in Colorectal Cancer Surgery, Based on the Minimum Basic Data Set.
A1 Garcia-Torrecillas, Juan Manuel
A1 Olvera-Porcel, Maria Carmen
A1 Ferrer-Marquez, Manuel
A1 Rosa-Garrido, Carmen
A1 Rodriguez-Barranco, Miguel
A1 Lea-Pereira, Maria Carmen
A1 Rubio-Gil, Francisco
A1 Sanchez-Perez, Maria-Jose
K1 colorectal cancer
K1 epidemiology
K1 mortality
K1 predictive model
K1 public health
AB Various models have been proposed to predict mortality rates for hospital patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery. However, none have been developed in Spain using clinical administrative databases and none are based exclusively on the variables available upon admission. Our study aim is to detect factors associated with in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer and, on this basis, to generate a predictive mortality score. A population cohort for analysis was obtained as all hospital admissions for colorectal cancer during the period 2008-2014, according to the Spanish Minimum Basic Data Set. The main measure was actual and expected mortality after the application of the considered mathematical model. A logistic regression model and a mortality score were created, and internal validation was performed. 115,841 hospitalization episodes were studied. Of these, 80% were included in the training set. The variables associated with in-hospital mortality were age (OR: 1.06, 95%CI: 1.05-1.06), urgent admission (OR: 4.68, 95% CI: 4.36-5.02), pulmonary disease (OR: 1.43, 95%CI: 1.28-1.60), stroke (OR: 1.87, 95%CI: 1.53-2.29) and renal insufficiency (OR: 7.26, 95%CI: 6.65-7.94). The level of discrimination (area under the curve) was 0.83. This mortality model is the first to be based on administrative clinical databases and hospitalization episodes. The model achieves a moderate-high level of discrimination.
PB MDPI AG
YR 2020
FD 2020-06-10
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10668/15748
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10668/15748
LA en
NO García-Torrecillas JM, Olvera-Porcel MC, Ferrer-Márquez M, Rosa-Garrido C, Rodríguez-Barranco M, Lea-Pereira MC, et al. Predictive Model of the Risk of In-Hospital Mortality in Colorectal Cancer Surgery, Based on the Minimum Basic Data Set. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Jun 12;17(12):4216.
NO This work was supported by the Carlos III Institute of Health, Grant/Award Number [PI16/01931], Madrid (Spain) under the 2013–2016 National Plan for R&D&I, and by the ISCIII-General Subdirectorate for Evaluation and Promotion of Research, within the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER). The funding bodies had no role in the design of the study, collection, analysis, or interpretation of data or in writing the manuscript.
DS RISalud
RD Apr 8, 2025