Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab.

Custodio, ACarmona-Bayonas, AJiménez-Fonseca, PSánchez, M LViudez, AHernández, RCano, J MEchavarria, IPericay, CMangas, MVisa, LBuxo, EGarcía, TRodríguez Palomo, AÁlvarez Manceñido, FLacalle, AMacias, IAzkarate, ARamchandani, AFernández Montes, ALópez, CLongo, FSánchez Bayona, RLimón, M LDíaz-Serrano, AHurtado, AMadero, RGómez, CGallego, J2023-01-252023-01-252017-05-02http://hdl.handle.net/10668/11158To develop and validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to predict overall survival (OS) in Caucasian-advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (AOA) patients undergoing first-line combination chemotherapy. Nine hundred twenty-four AOA patients treated at 28 Spanish teaching hospitals from January 2008 to September 2014 were used as derivation cohort. The result of an adjusted-Cox proportional hazards regression was represented as a nomogram and web-based calculator. The model was validated in 502 prospectively recruited patients treated between October 2014 and December 2016. Harrell's c-index was used to evaluate discrimination. The nomogram includes seven predictors associated with OS: HER2-positive tumours treated with trastuzumab, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, number of metastatic sites, bone metastases, ascites, histological grade, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Median OS was 5.8 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.5-6.6), 9.4 (95% CI, 8.5-10.6), and 14 months (95% CI, 11.8-16) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P We developed and validated a straightforward model to predict survival in Caucasian AOA patients initiating first-line polychemotherapy. This model can contribute to inform clinical decision-making and optimise clinical trial design.enAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/AdenocarcinomaAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAntineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy ProtocolsAscitesBone NeoplasmsEsophageal NeoplasmsEsophagogastric JunctionHealth StatusHumansLymphocyte CountMiddle AgedNeoplasm GradingNeutrophilsNomogramsReceptor, ErbB-2Stomach NeoplasmsSurvival RateTrastuzumabTumor BurdenWhite PeopleYoung AdultNomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab.research article28463962open access10.1038/bjc.2017.1221532-1827PMC5518851https://www.nature.com/articles/bjc2017122.pdfhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5518851/pdf