Steffen, AnnikaSørensen, Thorkild I AKnüppel, SvenTravier, NoemieSanchez-Perez, Maria-JoseHuerta, José MaríaQuirós, J RamónArdanaz, EvaDorronsoro, MirenTeucher, BirgitLi, KuanrongBueno-de-Mesquita, H Basvan der A, DaphneMattiello, AmaliaPalli, DomenicoTumino, RosarioKrogh, VittorioVineis, PaoloTrichopoulou, AntoniaOrfanos, PhilipposTrichopoulos, DimitriosHedblad, BoWallström, PeterOvervad, KimHalkjær, JytteTjønneland, AnneFagherazzi, GuyDartois, LaureenCrowe, FrancescaKhaw, Kay-TeeWareham, NickMiddleton, LefkosMay, Anne MPeeters, Petra H MBoeing, Heiner2014-03-202014-03-202013-07-16Steffen A, Sørensen TI, Knüppel S, Travier N, Sánchez MJ, Huerta JM, et al. Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women. PLoS ONE. 2013; 8(7):e67429http://hdl.handle.net/10668/1536Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't;BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.enAdultoAncianoEuropaFemeninoHumanosMasculinoMediana EdadModelos de Riesgos ProporcionalesEstudios ProspectivosFactores de RiesgoAumento de PesoMedical Subject Headings::Named Groups::Persons::Age Groups::AdultMedical Subject Headings::Named Groups::Persons::Age Groups::Adult::AgedMedical Subject Headings::Geographicals::Geographic Locations::EuropeMedical Subject Headings::Check Tags::FemaleMedical Subject Headings::Organisms::Eukaryota::Animals::Chordata::Vertebrates::Mammals::Primates::Haplorhini::Catarrhini::Hominidae::HumansMedical Subject Headings::Check Tags::MaleMedical Subject Headings::Named Groups::Persons::Age Groups::Adult::Middle AgedMedical Subject Headings::Analytical, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Techniques and Equipment::Investigative Techniques::Epidemiologic Methods::Statistics as Topic::Models, Statistical::Proportional Hazards ModelsMedical Subject Headings::Analytical, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Techniques and Equipment::Investigative Techniques::Epidemiologic Methods::Epidemiologic Study Characteristics as Topic::Epidemiologic Studies::Cohort Studies::Longitudinal Studies::Prospective StudiesMedical Subject Headings::Analytical, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Techniques and Equipment::Investigative Techniques::Epidemiologic Methods::Statistics as Topic::Probability::Risk::Risk FactorsMedical Subject Headings::Diseases::Pathological Conditions, Signs and Symptoms::Signs and Symptoms::Body Weight::Body Weight Changes::Weight Gainresearch article23874419open access10.1371/journal.pone.00674291932-6203PMC3713004