Lee, Shing FungLuk, HollisWong, ArayNg, Chuk KwanWong, Frank Chi SingLuque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel2022-08-242022-08-242020-04-01Lee SF, Luk H, Wong A, Ng CK, Wong FCS, Luque-Fernandez MA. Prediction model for short-term mortality after palliative radiotherapy for patients having advanced cancer: a cohort study from routine electronic medical data. Sci Rep. 2020 Apr 1;10(1):5779http://hdl.handle.net/10668/3937We developed a predictive score system for 30-day mortality after palliative radiotherapy by using predictors from routine electronic medical record. Patients with metastatic cancer receiving first course palliative radiotherapy from 1 July, 2007 to 31 December, 2017 were identified. 30-day mortality odds ratios and probabilities of the death predictive score were obtained using multivariable logistic regression model. Overall, 5,795 patients participated. Median follow-up was 39.6 months (range, 24.5-69.3) for all surviving patients. 5,290 patients died over a median 110 days, of whom 995 (17.2%) died within 30 days of radiotherapy commencement. The most important mortality predictors were primary lung cancer (odds ratio: 1.73, 95% confidence interval: 1.47-2.04) and log peripheral blood neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (odds ratio: 1.71, 95% confidence interval: 1.52-1.92). The developed predictive scoring system had 10 predictor variables and 20 points. The cross-validated area under curve was 0.81 (95% confidence interval: 0.79-0.82). The calibration suggested a reasonably good fit for the model (likelihood-ratio statistic: 2.81, P = 0.094), providing an accurate prediction for almost all 30-day mortality probabilities. The predictive scoring system accurately predicted 30-day mortality among patients with stage IV cancer. Oncologists may use this to tailor palliative therapy for patients.enAtribución 4.0 Internacionalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Palliative CareNeoplasmsCohort studyMortalityRadiotherapyPrediction modelCuidados paliativosNeoplasiasEstudios de cohortesMortalidadRadioterapiaMedical Subject Headings::Persons::Persons::Age Groups::Adult::AgedMedical Subject Headings::Analytical, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Techniques and Equipment::Investigative Techniques::Epidemiologic Methods::Epidemiologic Study Characteristics as Topic::Epidemiologic Studies::Cohort StudiesMedical Subject Headings::Analytical, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Techniques and Equipment::Investigative Techniques::Epidemiologic Methods::Data Collection::Records as Topic::Medical Records::Medical Records Systems, Computerized::Electronic Health RecordsMedical Subject Headings::Check Tags::FemaleMedical Subject Headings::Organisms::Eukaryota::Animals::Chordata::Vertebrates::Mammals::Primates::Haplorhini::Catarrhini::Hominidae::HumansMedical Subject Headings::Check Tags::MaleMedical Subject Headings::Persons::Persons::Age Groups::Adult::Middle AgedMedical Subject Headings::Diseases::NeoplasmsMedical Subject Headings::Analytical, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Techniques and Equipment::Investigative Techniques::Epidemiologic Methods::Statistics as Topic::Probability::Odds RatioMedical Subject Headings::Analytical, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Techniques and Equipment::Therapeutics::Patient Care::Palliative CareMedical Subject Headings::Analytical, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Techniques and Equipment::Diagnosis::PrognosisMedical Subject Headings::Analytical, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Techniques and Equipment::Investigative Techniques::Epidemiologic Methods::Statistics as Topic::Probability::Risk::Risk Factorsresearch article32238885Acceso abierto10.1038/s41598-020-62826-x2045-2322PMC7113237