Hüsing, AnikaDossus, LaureFerrari, PietroTjønneland, AnneHansen, LouiseFagherazzi, GuyBaglietto, LauraSchock, HelenaChang-Claude, JennyBoeing, HeinerSteffen, AnnikaTrichopoulou, AntoniaBamia, ChristinaKatsoulis, MichalisKrogh, VittorioPalli, DomenicoPanico, SalvatoreOnland-Moret, N CharlottePeeters, Petra HBueno-de-Mesquita, H BasWeiderpass, ElisabeteGram, Inger TArdanaz, EvaObón-Santacana, MireiaNavarro, CarmenSánchez-Cantalejo, EmilioEtxezarreta, NereaAllen, Naomi EKhaw, Kay TeeWareham, NickRinaldi, SabinaRomieu, IsabelleMerritt, Melissa AGunter, MarcRiboli, ElioKaaks, Rudolf2023-01-252023-01-252015-05-13http://hdl.handle.net/10668/9816Endometrial cancer (EC) is the fourth most frequent cancer in women in Europe, and as its incidence is increasing, prevention strategies gain further pertinence. Risk prediction models can be a useful tool for identifying women likely to benefit from targeted prevention measures. On the basis of data from 201,811 women (mostly aged 30-65 years) including 855 incident EC cases from eight countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, a model to predict EC was developed. A step-wise model selection process was used to select confirmed predictive epidemiologic risk factors. Piece-wise constant hazard rates in 5-year age-intervals were estimated in a cause-specific competing risks model, five-fold-cross-validation was applied for internal validation. Risk factors included in the risk prediction model were body-mass index (BMI), menopausal status, age at menarche and at menopause, oral contraceptive use, overall and by different BMI categories and overall duration of use, parity, age at first full-term pregnancy, duration of menopausal hormone therapy and smoking status (specific for pre, peri- and post-menopausal women). These variables improved the discriminating capacity to predict risk over 5 years from 71% for a model based on age alone to 77% (overall C statistic), and the model was well-calibrated (ratio of expected to observed cases = 0.99). Our model could be used for the identification of women at increased risk of EC in Western Europe. To achieve an EC-risk model with general validity, a large-scale cohort-consortium approach would be needed to assess and adjust for population variation.enEndometrial cancerEpidemiologyPreventionRisk modelAdultAgedBody Mass IndexEndometrial NeoplasmsEuropeFemaleHumansIncidenceMenopauseMiddle AgedModels, BiologicalPredictive Value of TestsProspective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk Factorsresearch article25968175open access10.1007/s10654-015-0030-91573-7284http://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/42280/2/150413%20Huesing%20Eur%20Journ%20Epidem.pdf