%0 Journal Article
%A Custodio, A
%A Carmona-Bayonas, A
%A Jiménez-Fonseca, P
%A Sánchez, M L
%A Viudez, A
%A Hernández, R
%A Cano, J M
%A Echavarria, I
%A Pericay, C
%A Mangas, M
%A Visa, L
%A Buxo, E
%A García, T
%A Rodríguez Palomo, A
%A Álvarez Manceñido, F
%A Lacalle, A
%A Macias, I
%A Azkarate, A
%A Ramchandani, A
%A Fernández Montes, A
%A López, C
%A Longo, F
%A Sánchez Bayona, R
%A Limón, M L
%A Díaz-Serrano, A
%A Hurtado, A
%A Madero, R
%A Gómez, C
%A Gallego, J
%T Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab.
%D 2017
%U http://hdl.handle.net/10668/11158
%X To develop and validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to predict overall survival (OS) in Caucasian-advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (AOA) patients undergoing first-line combination chemotherapy. Nine hundred twenty-four AOA patients treated at 28 Spanish teaching hospitals from January 2008 to September 2014 were used as derivation cohort. The result of an adjusted-Cox proportional hazards regression was represented as a nomogram and web-based calculator. The model was validated in 502 prospectively recruited patients treated between October 2014 and December 2016. Harrell's c-index was used to evaluate discrimination. The nomogram includes seven predictors associated with OS: HER2-positive tumours treated with trastuzumab, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, number of metastatic sites, bone metastases, ascites, histological grade, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Median OS was 5.8 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.5-6.6), 9.4 (95% CI, 8.5-10.6), and 14 months (95% CI, 11.8-16) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P We developed and validated a straightforward model to predict survival in Caucasian AOA patients initiating first-line polychemotherapy. This model can contribute to inform clinical decision-making and optimise clinical trial design.
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