RT Journal Article T1 A novel predictive approach for GVHD after allogeneic SCT based on clinical variables and cytokine gene polymorphisms. A1 Martinez-Laperche, Carolina A1 Buces, Elena A1 Aguilera-Morillo, M Carmen A1 Picornell, Antoni A1 Gonzalez-Rivera, Milagros A1 Lillo, Rosa A1 Santos, Nazly A1 Martin-Antonio, Beatriz A1 Guillem, Vicent A1 Nieto, Jose B A1 Gonzalez, Marcos A1 de-la-Camara, Rafael A1 Brunet, Salut A1 Jimenez-Velasco, Antonio A1 Espigado, Ildefonso A1 Vallejo, Carlos A1 Sampol, Antonia A1 Bellon, Jose Maria A1 Serrano, David A1 Kwon, Mi A1 Gayoso, Jorge A1 Balsalobre, Pascual A1 Urbano-Izpizua, Alvaro A1 Solano, Carlos A1 Gallardo, David A1 Diez-Martin, Jose Luis A1 Romo, Juan A1 Buño, Ismael K1 Graft-versus-host disease K1 Acute graft-versus-host disease K1 Allogeneic stem cell transplantation K1 Predictive model K1 Cytokine gene polymorphism K1 Single nucleotide polymorphisms K1 Genetic risk factors K1 Clinical variables K1 Risk stratification AB Despite considerable advances in our understanding of the pathophysiology of graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), its prediction remains unresolved and depends mainly on clinical data. The aim of this study is to build a predictive model based on clinical variables and cytokine gene polymorphism for predicting acute GVHD (aGVHD) and chronic GVHD (cGVHD) from the analysis of a large cohort of HLA-identical sibling donor allogeneic stem cell transplant (allo-SCT) patients. A total of 25 SNPs in 12 cytokine genes were evaluated in 509 patients. Data were analyzed using a linear regression model and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). The statistical model was constructed by randomly selecting 85% of cases (training set), and the predictive ability was confirmed based on the remaining 15% of cases (test set). Models including clinical and genetic variables (CG-M) predicted severe aGVHD significantly better than models including only clinical variables (C-M) or only genetic variables (G-M). For grades 3-4 aGVHD, the correct classification rates (CCR1) were: 100% for CG-M, 88% for G-M, and 50% for C-M. On the other hand, CG-M and G-M predicted extensive cGVHD better than C-M (CCR1: 80% vs. 66.7%, respectively). A risk score was calculated based on LASSO multivariate analyses. It was able to correctly stratify patients who developed grades 3-4 aGVHD (P < .001) and extensive cGVHD (P < .001). The novel predictive models proposed here improve the prediction of severe GVHD after allo-SCT. This approach could facilitate personalized risk-adapted clinical management of patients undergoing allo-SCT. PB American Society of Hematology YR 2018 FD 2018-07-24 LK http://hdl.handle.net/10668/12734 UL http://hdl.handle.net/10668/12734 LA en NO Martínez-Laperche C, Buces E, Aguilera-Morillo MC, Picornell A, González-Rivera M, Lillo R, et al. A novel predictive approach for GVHD after allogeneic SCT based on clinical variables and cytokine gene polymorphisms. Blood Adv. 2018 Jul 24;2(14):1719-1737. NO The authors would like to thank the Centro Nacional de Genotipado for help with genotyping. They would also like to acknowledge the patients who participated in this study, as well as the staff of the Hematology Department, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón (Madrid, Spain), who made the study possible. This study was partially supported by Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness ISCIII-FIS Grants PI08/1463, PI11/00708, PI14/01731, PI17/01880, and RD12/0036/0061 and cofinanced by the European Regional Development Fund from the European Commission, the “A way of making Europe” initiative, and grants from Fundación LAIR and Asociación Madrileña de Hematología y Hemoterapia DS RISalud RD Sep 2, 2025