RT Journal Article
T1 Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.
A1 Steffen, Annika
A1 Sørensen, Thorkild I A
A1 Knüppel, Sven
A1 Travier, Noemie
A1 Sanchez-Perez, Maria-Jose
A1 Huerta, José María
A1 Quirós, J Ramón
A1 Ardanaz, Eva
A1 Dorronsoro, Miren
A1 Teucher, Birgit
A1 Li, Kuanrong
A1 Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas
A1 van der A, Daphne
A1 Mattiello, Amalia
A1 Palli, Domenico
A1 Tumino, Rosario
A1 Krogh, Vittorio
A1 Vineis, Paolo
A1 Trichopoulou, Antonia
A1 Orfanos, Philippos
A1 Trichopoulos, Dimitrios
A1 Hedblad, Bo
A1 Wallström, Peter
A1 Overvad, Kim
A1 Halkjær, Jytte
A1 Tjønneland, Anne
A1 Fagherazzi, Guy
A1 Dartois, Laureen
A1 Crowe, Francesca
A1 Khaw, Kay-Tee
A1 Wareham, Nick
A1 Middleton, Lefkos
A1 May, Anne M
A1 Peeters, Petra H M
A1 Boeing, Heiner
K1 Adulto
K1 Anciano
K1 Europa
K1 Femenino
K1 Humanos
K1 Masculino
K1 Mediana Edad
K1 Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales
K1 Estudios Prospectivos
K1 Factores de Riesgo
K1 Aumento de Peso
AB BACKGROUNDIdentifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population.METHODSWe used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample).RESULTSOur final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively.CONCLUSIONThe present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.
PB Public Library of Science
YR 2013
FD 2013-07-16
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10668/1536
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10668/1536
LA en
NO Steffen A, Sørensen TI, Knüppel S, Travier N, Sánchez MJ, Huerta JM, et al. Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women. PLoS ONE. 2013; 8(7):e67429
NO Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't;
DS RISalud
RD Apr 7, 2025