RT Journal Article
T1 Prediction model for short-term mortality after palliative radiotherapy for patients having advanced cancer: a cohort study from routine electronic medical data
A1 Lee, Shing Fung
A1 Luk, Hollis
A1 Wong, Aray
A1 Ng, Chuk Kwan
A1 Wong, Frank Chi Sing
A1 Luque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel
K1 Palliative Care
K1 Neoplasms
K1 Cohort study
K1 Mortality
K1 Radiotherapy
K1 Prediction model
K1 Cuidados paliativos
K1 Neoplasias
K1 Estudios de cohortes
K1 Mortalidad
K1 Radioterapia
AB We developed a predictive score system for 30-day mortality after palliative radiotherapy by using predictors from routine electronic medical record. Patients with metastatic cancer receiving first course palliative radiotherapy from 1 July, 2007 to 31 December, 2017 were identified. 30-day mortality odds ratios and probabilities of the death predictive score were obtained using multivariable logistic regression model. Overall, 5,795 patients participated. Median follow-up was 39.6 months (range, 24.5-69.3) for all surviving patients. 5,290 patients died over a median 110 days, of whom 995 (17.2%) died within 30 days of radiotherapy commencement. The most important mortality predictors were primary lung cancer (odds ratio: 1.73, 95% confidence interval: 1.47-2.04) and log peripheral blood neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (odds ratio: 1.71, 95% confidence interval: 1.52-1.92). The developed predictive scoring system had 10 predictor variables and 20 points. The cross-validated area under curve was 0.81 (95% confidence interval: 0.79-0.82). The calibration suggested a reasonably good fit for the model (likelihood-ratio statistic: 2.81, P = 0.094), providing an accurate prediction for almost all 30-day mortality probabilities. The predictive scoring system accurately predicted 30-day mortality among patients with stage IV cancer. Oncologists may use this to tailor palliative therapy for patients.
PB Springer Nature
YR 2020
FD 2020-04-01
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10668/3937
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10668/3937
LA en
NO Lee SF, Luk H, Wong A, Ng CK, Wong FCS, Luque-Fernandez MA. Prediction model for short-term mortality after palliative radiotherapy for patients having advanced cancer: a cohort study from routine electronic medical data. Sci Rep. 2020 Apr 1;10(1):5779
DS RISalud
RD Apr 7, 2025