%0 Journal Article
%A Lee, Shing Fung
%A Luk, Hollis
%A Wong, Aray
%A Ng, Chuk Kwan
%A Wong, Frank Chi Sing
%A Luque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel
%T Prediction model for short-term mortality after palliative radiotherapy for patients having advanced cancer: a cohort study from routine electronic medical data
%D 2020
%U http://hdl.handle.net/10668/3937
%X We developed a predictive score system for 30-day mortality after palliative radiotherapy by using predictors from routine electronic medical record. Patients with metastatic cancer receiving first course palliative radiotherapy from 1 July, 2007 to 31 December, 2017 were identified. 30-day mortality odds ratios and probabilities of the death predictive score were obtained using multivariable logistic regression model. Overall, 5,795 patients participated. Median follow-up was 39.6 months (range, 24.5-69.3) for all surviving patients. 5,290 patients died over a median 110 days, of whom 995 (17.2%) died within 30 days of radiotherapy commencement. The most important mortality predictors were primary lung cancer (odds ratio: 1.73, 95% confidence interval: 1.47-2.04) and log peripheral blood neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (odds ratio: 1.71, 95% confidence interval: 1.52-1.92). The developed predictive scoring system had 10 predictor variables and 20 points. The cross-validated area under curve was 0.81 (95% confidence interval: 0.79-0.82). The calibration suggested a reasonably good fit for the model (likelihood-ratio statistic: 2.81, P = 0.094), providing an accurate prediction for almost all 30-day mortality probabilities. The predictive scoring system accurately predicted 30-day mortality among patients with stage IV cancer. Oncologists may use this to tailor palliative therapy for patients.
%K Palliative Care
%K Neoplasms
%K Cohort study
%K Mortality
%K Radiotherapy
%K Prediction model
%K Cuidados paliativos
%K Neoplasias
%K Estudios de cohortes
%K Mortalidad
%K Radioterapia
%~