RT Journal Article
T1 Modeling NAFLD disease burden in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States for the period 2016-2030.
A1 Estes, Chris
A1 Anstee, Quentin M
A1 Arias-Loste, Maria Teresa
A1 Bantel, Heike
A1 Bellentani, Stefano
A1 Caballeria, Joan
A1 Colombo, Massimo
A1 Craxi, Antonio
A1 Crespo, Javier
A1 Day, Christopher P
A1 Eguchi, Yuichiro
A1 Geier, Andreas
A1 Kondili, Loreta A
A1 Kroy, Daniela C
A1 Lazarus, Jeffrey V
A1 Loomba, Rohit
A1 Manns, Michael P
A1 Marchesini, Giulio
A1 Nakajima, Atsushi
A1 Negro, Francesco
A1 Petta, Salvatore
A1 Ratziu, Vlad
A1 Romero-Gomez, Manuel
A1 Sanyal, Arun
A1 Schattenberg, Jörn M
A1 Tacke, Frank
A1 Tanaka, Junko
A1 Trautwein, Christian
A1 Wei, Lai
A1 Zeuzem, Stefan
A1 Razavi, Homie
K1 Burden of disease
K1 Cardiovascular disease
K1 Cirrhosis
K1 Diabetes mellitus
K1 HCC
K1 Health care resource utilization
K1 Metabolic syndrome
K1 NAFLD
K1 NASH
K1 Obesity
AB Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data. A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections. If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0-30%), between 2016-2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a shrinking population. However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15-56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as a result of an aging/increasing population. NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed. If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years.
YR 2018
FD 2018-06-08
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10668/12569
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10668/12569
LA en
DS RISalud
RD Apr 9, 2025