RT Journal Article
T1 COVID-19 mortality risk assessment: An international multi-center study
A1 Bertsimas, Dimitris
A1 Lukin, Galit
A1 Mingardi, Luca
A1 Nohadani, Omid
A1 Orfanoudaki, Agni
A1 Stellato, Bartolomeo
A1 Wiberg, Holly
A1 Gonzalez-Garcia, Sara
A1 Parra-Calderón, Carlos Luis
A1 Robinson, Kenneth
A1 Schneider, Michelle
A1 Stein, Barry
A1 Estirado, Alberto
A1 A Beccara, Lia
A1 Canino, Rosario
A1 Dal Bello, Martina
A1 Pezzetti, Federica
A1 Pan, Angelo
K1 COVID-19
K1 Hospital mortality
K1 Aged, 80 and over
K1 Aged
K1 Europe
K1 United States
K1 Mortalidad hospitalaria
K1 Anciano de 80 o más años
K1 Ancianos
K1 Factores de riesgo
K1 Estados Unidos
K1 Europa
AB Timely identification of COVID-19 patients at high risk of mortality can significantly improve patient management and resource allocation within hospitals. This study seeks to develop and validate a data-driven personalized mortality risk calculator for hospitalized COVID-19 patients. De-identified data was obtained for 3,927 COVID-19 positive patients from six independent centers, comprising 33 different hospitals. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were collected at hospital admission. The COVID-19 Mortality Risk (CMR) tool was developed using the XGBoost algorithm to predict mortality. Its discrimination performance was subsequently evaluated on three validation cohorts. The derivation cohort of 3,062 patients has an observed mortality rate of 26.84%. Increased age, decreased oxygen saturation (≤ 93%), elevated levels of C-reactive protein (≥ 130 mg/L), blood urea nitrogen (≥ 18 mg/dL), and blood creatinine (≥ 1.2 mg/dL) were identified as primary risk factors, validating clinical findings. The model obtains out-of-sample AUCs of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.87-0.94) on the derivation cohort. In the validation cohorts, the model obtains AUCs of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.88-0.95) on Seville patients, 0.87 (95% CI, 0.84-0.91) on Hellenic COVID-19 Study Group patients, and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.76-0.85) on Hartford Hospital patients. The CMR tool is available as an online application at covidanalytics.io/mortality_calculator and is currently in clinical use. The CMR model leverages machine learning to generate accurate mortality predictions using commonly available clinical features. This is the first risk score trained and validated on a cohort of COVID-19 patients from Europe and the United States.
YR 2020
FD 2020-12-09
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10668/3440
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10668/3440
LA en
NO Bertsimas D, Lukin G, Mingardi L, Nohadani O, Orfanoudaki A, Stellato B, et al. COVID-19 mortality risk assessment: An international multi-center study. PLoS One. 2020 Dec 9;15(12):e0243262.
DS RISalud
RD Apr 19, 2025