RT Journal Article
T1 The prognosis of patients hospitalized with a first episode of heart failure, validation of two scores: PREDICE and AHEAD.
A1 Ruiz-Ruiz, Francisco
A1 Menendez-Orenga, Miguel
A1 Medrano, Francisco J
A1 Calderon, Enrique J
A1 Lora-Pablos, David
A1 Navarro-Puerto, Maria Asuncion
A1 Rodriguez-Torres, Patricia
A1 Gomez-de-la-Camara, Agustin
K1 heart failure
K1 inpatients
K1 severity of illness index
K1 validation studies as topics
AB Heart failure (HF) is a chronic, frequent and disabling condition but with a modifiable course and a large potential for improving. The aim of this study was to validate the two available clinical prediction rules for mortality at one year in patients with primo-hospitalization for decompensated HF: PREDICE and AHEAD. The secondary aim was to evaluate in our setting the changes in the clinical pattern of HF in the last decade in patients hospitalized for a first episode of the disease. A prospective multicenter cohort study, which included 180 patients hospitalized with "de novo" HF was conducted to validate the PREDICE score. Calibration and discrimination measurements were calculated for the PREDICE model and the PREDICE score (using the validation cohort of the PREDICE) and the AHEAD score (using both the development and the validation cohort of the PREDICE). For the PREDICE models, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57-0.79) and the calibration slope 0.65 (95% CI: 0.21-1.20). For the PREDICE score AUC was 0.59 (95% CI: 0.47-0.71) and slope 0.42 (95% CI: -0.20-1.17). For the AHEAD score the AUC was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.62-0.73) and slope 1.38 (95% CI: 0.62-0.73) when used the development cohort of PREDICE and the AUC was 0.58 (95% CI: 0.49-0.67), and slope 0.68 (95% CI: -0.06 to 1.47) when used its validation cohort. The present study shows that the two risk scores available for patients with primo-hospitalization for decompensated HF (PREDICE and AHEAD) are not currently valid for predicting mortality at one-year. In our setting the clinical spectrum of hospitalized patients with new-onset HF has been modified over time. The study underscores the need to validate the prognostic models before clinical implementation.
PB Dove Medical Press Ltd.
SN 1179-1349
YR 2019
FD 2019-07-22
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10668/14395
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10668/14395
LA en
NO Ruiz-Ruiz F, Menéndez-Orenga M, Medrano FJ, Calderón EJ, Lora-Pablos D, Navarro-Puerto MA, et al.  The prognosis of patients hospitalized with a first episode of heart failure, validation of two scores: PREDICE and AHEAD. Clin Epidemiol. 2019 Jul 22;11:615-624.
DS RISalud
RD Apr 12, 2025