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Title: Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.
Authors: Steffen, Annika
Sørensen, Thorkild I A
Knüppel, Sven
Travier, Noemie
Sánchez, María-José
Huerta, José María
Quirós, J Ramón
Ardanaz, Eva
Dorronsoro, Miren
Teucher, Birgit
Li, Kuanrong
Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas
van der A, Daphne
Mattiello, Amalia
Palli, Domenico
Tumino, Rosario
Krogh, Vittorio
Vineis, Paolo
Trichopoulou, Antonia
Orfanos, Philippos
Trichopoulos, Dimitrios
Hedblad, Bo
Wallström, Peter
Overvad, Kim
Halkjær, Jytte
Tjønneland, Anne
Fagherazzi, Guy
Dartois, Laureen
Crowe, Francesca
Khaw, Kay-Tee
Wareham, Nick
Middleton, Lefkos
May, Anne M
Peeters, Petra H M
Boeing, Heiner
metadata.dc.contributor.authoraffiliation: [Steffen,A; Knüppel,S; Boeing,H] Department of Epidemiology, German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbrücke, Nuthetal, Germany. [Sørensen,TIA] Instiute of Preventive Medicine, Bispebjerg and Frederiksberg Hospitals – Part of Copenhagen University Hospital, The Capital Region, Denmark. [Travier,N] Unit of Nutrition, Environment and Cancer, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Barcelona, Spain. [Sánchez,MJ] Andalusian School of Public Health, Granada, Spain. [Huerta,JM] Department of Epidemiology, Murcia Regional Health Council, Murcia, Spain. [Sánchez,MJ; Huerta,JM; Ardanaz,E] CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain. [Quirós,JR] Public Health Directorate, Asturias, Spain. [Ardanaz,E] Navarre Public Health Institute, Pamplona, Spain. [Dorronsoro,M] Basque Regional Health Department and Ciberesp – Biodonostia, San Sebastian, Spain. [Teucher,B; Li,K] Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany. [Bueno-de-Mesquita,HB; A,D] National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands. [Bueno-de-Mesquita,HB] Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Medical Centre, Utrecht, The Netherlands. [Mattiello,A] Dipartimento di Medicina Clinica e Chirurgia, Frederico II University, Naples, Italy. [Palli,D] Molecular and Nutritional Epidemiology Unit, Cancer Research and Prevention Institute, Florence, Italy. [Tumino,R] Cancer Registry and Histopathology Unit, ‘‘Civile – M.P.Arezzo’’ Hospital, Ragusa, Italy. [Krogh,V] Nutritional Epidemiology Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, Milan, Italy. [Vineis,P] HuGeF Foundation Torino, Italy. [Trichopoulou,A; Orfanos,P; Trichopoulos,D] Hellenic Health Foundation, Athens, Greece. [Trichopoulou,A; Orfanos,P] WHO Collaborating Center for Food and Nutrition Policies, Department of Hygiene Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, University of Athens Medical School, Athens, Greece. [Trichopoulos,D] Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America. [Trichopoulos,D] Bureau of Epidemiologic Research, Academy of Athens, Athens, Greece. [Hedblad,B] Department of Clinical Sciences in Malmö, Clinical Research Centre, Skane University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden. [Wallström,P] Nutrition Epidemiology Research Group, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden. [Overvad,K] Section of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark. [Halkjær,J; Tjønneland,A] Danish Cancer Society Research Center, Copenhagen, Denmark. [Fagherazzi,G; Dartois,L] Inserm, Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Population Health, Institut Gustave Roussy, Villejuif, France. Paris South University, Villejuif, France. [Crowe,F] Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom. [Khaw,K] Clinical Gerontology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom. [Wareham,N] Medical Research Council (MRC) Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom. [Vineis,P; Middleton,L] School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom. [May,AM; Peeters,PHM] Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands. [Peeters,PHM] Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Keywords: Adulto;Anciano;Europa;Femenino;Humanos;Masculino;Mediana Edad;Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales;Estudios Prospectivos;Factores de Riesgo;Aumento de Peso
metadata.dc.subject.mesh: Medical Subject Headings::Named Groups::Persons::Age Groups::Adult
Medical Subject Headings::Named Groups::Persons::Age Groups::Adult::Aged
Medical Subject Headings::Geographicals::Geographic Locations::Europe
Medical Subject Headings::Check Tags::Female
Medical Subject Headings::Organisms::Eukaryota::Animals::Chordata::Vertebrates::Mammals::Primates::Haplorhini::Catarrhini::Hominidae::Humans
Medical Subject Headings::Check Tags::Male
Medical Subject Headings::Named Groups::Persons::Age Groups::Adult::Middle Aged
Medical Subject Headings::Analytical, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Techniques and Equipment::Investigative Techniques::Epidemiologic Methods::Statistics as Topic::Models, Statistical::Proportional Hazards Models
Medical Subject Headings::Analytical, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Techniques and Equipment::Investigative Techniques::Epidemiologic Methods::Epidemiologic Study Characteristics as Topic::Epidemiologic Studies::Cohort Studies::Longitudinal Studies::Prospective Studies
Medical Subject Headings::Analytical, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Techniques and Equipment::Investigative Techniques::Epidemiologic Methods::Statistics as Topic::Probability::Risk::Risk Factors
Medical Subject Headings::Diseases::Pathological Conditions, Signs and Symptoms::Signs and Symptoms::Body Weight::Body Weight Changes::Weight Gain
Issue Date: 16-Jul-2013
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Citation: Steffen A, Sørensen TI, Knüppel S, Travier N, Sánchez MJ, Huerta JM, et al. Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women. PLoS ONE. 2013; 8(7):e67429
Abstract: BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.
Description: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't;
metadata.dc.identifier.doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0067429
ISSN: 1932-6203 (Online)
Appears in Collections:01- Artículos - EASP. Escuela Andaluza de Salud Pública

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